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PROJECTIONS OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN UGANDA 2007-2017

Oct , 17

Population projections are essential for planning at the national, regional and district levels in the private and public sectors. In order for planners and policy makers to efficiently allocate the scarce resources, they need to know the future size and struc-ture of the country’s population as well as their characteristics. Two population projection scenarios have been made including the high and low scenarios. The low variant scenario is essen-tially an AIDS impact scenario while the High variant projection does not explicitly take into account HIV / AIDS in the assump-tions. Thus the low variant projections are considered to be the more probable situation. However, by comparing the re-sults of the low variant projections with those of the High vari-ants, we are able to examine the projected impact of HIV/AIDS on the population size and structure. In the High Variant the

population of Uganda is esti-mated to be 43.4 million in 2017 while in the low Variant projections it is estimated at 40.6 million. On this basis, AIDS is projected to reduce the size of the population of Uganda’s population by 2.8 million persons (7%) by 2017. The annual number of births is projected to increase to 1.9 million in 2017. The HIV epi-demic seems not to have a significant impact on the number of births throughout the projection period. However more deaths (531,000) are rec-orded in the low variant than in the high variant, which is at-tributed to the impact of HIV/AIDS. The gap between the low and high variant is narrowing probably due to the introduc-tion of ARVs.

Uganda Bureau of Statistics. Ubos.org. December, 2007

Link to full article: http://www.ubos.org/onlinefiles/uploads/ubos/pdf%20documents/PopulationProjections2003-2017.pdf

Population projections are essential for planning at the national, regional and district levels in the private and public sectors. In order for planners and policy makers to efficiently allocate the scarce resources, they need to know the future size and struc-ture of the country’s population as well as their characteristics. Two population projection scenarios have been made including the high and low scenarios. The low variant scenario is essen-tially an AIDS impact scenario while the High variant projection does not explicitly take into account HIV / AIDS in the assump-tions. Thus the low variant projections are considered to be the more probable situation. However, by comparing the re-sults of the low variant projections with those of the High vari-ants, we are able to examine the projected impact of HIV/AIDS on the population size and structure. In the High Variant the

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